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Bitcoin Creeps up to 3,900 USD After Meandering Week
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It’s been another rollercoaster week for Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency market, with plenty of flags, pennants and traps to get our teeth into.
Bitcoin bears get caught in a trap
After a consolidation phase between 3,800-3,850 USD, Bitcoin (BTC) made a 3% move down to 3,670 USD before surging 4% up to USD3,830 within a three hour period.
This served as the catalyst for an ascending channel with developed through the latter half of the week. At the moment, BTC is creeping up to 3,900 USD.
As you can see in the BTC/USD 1-hour chart below, a clear bearish divergence between price and RSI has been forming over the last few days.
In theory, this indicates an imminent retracement to the downside unless bulls step in with buy-side momentum. As we head into the weekend, BTC’s ascending channel will be a key pattern to watch.
The BTC/USD 4-hour chart is interesting. After the initial break of the 200-day moving average (green line), BTC respected this key trendline as a support level (highlighted in green).
This was followed by a surge up to 4,190 USD. Following this initial large move, BTC fell back to 3,715 USD and did not break the 200 MA.
The next few days formed a clear bearish pennant, which eventually broke to the downside and pierced the 200MA.
It looks as if the break of the bearish pennant was a bear trap (highlighted in red) designed to trap and liquidate bears in short positions.
Ethereum keeps pace
For the most part, Ethereum (ETH) followed BTC this past week.
After an 8% drop down to 123 USD, ETH rallied back up to 140 USD.
However, instead of forming an ascending channel over the past week, ETH appears to be forming a pennant formation instead.
The pennant shape is a little more clear in the ETH/USD 4-hour pattern below. As you can see, the pole extends from 123-140 USD, while the subsequent consolidation pattern appears to be forming a symmetrical triangle.
If this bullish pennant plays out, we could see a final push up to around 160 USD to test a previous resistance level from early January before a larger retracement to the downside.
XRP begins bull flag formation
The XRP/USD 1-hour chart from this past week closely resembles ETH’s price movement. After hitting a low of USD0.29725, XRP rallied 7.5% up to USD0.3195.
Since the local top, XRP appears to be forming a bull flag on the 1-hour chart.
On the 4-hour chart, XRP appears to be forming a symmetrical triangle.
With a bull flag forming on the shorter time frame and an imminent triangle apex on the higher timeframe, a breakout to the upside wouldn’t be surprising over the coming week, so traders should pay very close attention to how this triangle develops in the short term.